Keyword: Gambling

Tradesports Predicting Democrats Take the Senate Email Print

Online wagering powerhouse, Tradesports.com, is predicting that Democrats take the Senate -- sort of. Read on for an explanation.

Below are the battleground Senate races with the % chance (as determined by the trading activity at Tradesports.com) of the listed party winning that race. (Note, these are not scientific polls and are provided purely for entertainment purposes.)

As of 2:15 PM EST, Tradesports is predicting Dem pickups in PA, OH, VA, MO, MT, and RI with NO GOP Pickups. That would give Democrats control of the Senate. Ironically, the same site is giving a GOP controlled senate a nearly 70% likelihood. The difference likely reflects the idea that, though even if the percent chance given to each individual race is accurate, the probability of ALL of those taking place as predicted is far lower. Thus, the prediction for the Senate at large going to the Democrats is less than the individual race predictions would suggest.

That said, I still think the two sets of data are not entirely in synch, but whatever, this is just for fun anyway.

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