Arms Procurement - Decision Making

Col (Retd) EAS BOKHARI carries out an

analysis of animportant aspect of the defence sector

Arms trade/sales - a dubious trade as it is - there appears to be some transparency about the decision making of arms procurement - at least in some countries. It is more pronounced in some than others where it is a ‘hush - hush’ affair.

International arms sales and transfers have risen for the third consecutive year in 1997 - and has mainly boosted due to continuing conflict in the Middle East - and according to IISS London- the sales rose by some 12 per cent to 46 billion dollars bringing real growth between 1995 and 1997 to 36 per cent.

The book under review is the result of nearly five years erudition of Mr. Ravinder Pal Singh - an innovative researcher at Sipri Stockholm - who is now a full fledged project leader there. I met him last in 1995 at Sipri HQ Stockholm at the time of press launch of the prestigious 1995 Year Book. He is a retired army officer and has also been associated with Indian Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis- a most accomplished researcher indeed.

The book is an amazing first volume - and presents collection of massive information from a range of countries. It is both diverse and unique in exploration and presentation. ‘ By drawing on contributions from national experts, it elucidates both national characteristics and a complex range of factors that influence decision.’ The polyglot nature of countries must have made Mr. Singh’s work still more difficult. The book is again a superb example of Sipri editorial expertise, ie the unbelievable skill with which rag tag and rough hewn drafts of polyglot writers and analysts have been transformed into a most readable, delightful and incisive book. I should say - this book is not only a piece of massive search - but an epitome of research, synthesis - and a very elaborate analysis by the worthy writer Mr. Singh.

Obviously very considerable thought and innovation has gone into the handling of the rather difficult project. The four major themes of the study are:

* Military and Politico-security issues.

* Budget, financial planning and audit issues.

* Techno-industrial issues and,

* Organizational behaviour and public interest issues.

And within these, the author has specified parameters for the assistance of researchers/writers on each country. There are some good 15 sub-topics for the guidance of the contributors.

This innovative approach is explained by Mr. Singh in these words. ‘... By its nature, the subject required a broad, in depth analysis of many political, military, economic. technical, industrial organizational and cultural variables.... While the resulting country studies were uneven as regards details, the lack of detail in some areas - also constitutes a finding: namely, that the standard of research on security issues that is available to the public and its elected representatives and consequently the quality of public debate are also uneven.’

The approach in a nutshell was this that research questionnaires were designed by Mr. Singh - and with great imagination and skill - and primary papers were written by national experts and discussed in a workshop - and then a single researcher wrote his presentation for a country. Mr. Singh himself wrote the Indian presentation. Some good 60 papers have been deposited in the Sipri archives which form the basis of this amazing book-which of course contains sparkling and scintillating analysis by Mr. Singh here and there, like fresh air and sprinkling of rare insight.

Some of the most ornately designed and communicative graphics and charts have been included in the book. These are Mr. Singh’s own effort and add to the value of this book - besides a very useful index which can help other researchers.

Surely the technique of handling - a gigantic and diverse project as it is - is quite novel. But then it has an adequate sponsorship - and without that such results may not be forthcoming.

The writer - or rather the editor never hesitates to give his own analysis - and perhaps the most incisive chapter is the Chapter 8 which gives country wise comparative analysis in which all the four themes have been discussed country wise. Perhaps the best example of coordination (inter-ministerial) in the decision making has been found in Japan, where the Japanese MoFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and JDA - the Defence Agency have got a well institutionalized coordination which encourages long-term planning. In most cases the decisions were found to be reactive than really long-term. It is to be noted that the decision of Japan Self-Defence Forces is not a final word and is generally expressed through lobbying by ‘Kokubo Zoku’ (Defence tribe) - and this mainly presents the interest of defence industrialists.

Perhaps the most illuminating part of the book is contained in the General Findings - ie, at pages 272 onwards. And rather philosophically and stoically Mr. Singh says ‘.... If the national security policy - and decision making processes are not made adequately accountable, if governments fail to provide direction to security policies with the help of wider professional expertise in society, and if the military fails to harmonize public priorities with its own security policies, then intrinsic weaknesses in national security decision-making will remain.’ - and then again as a final note ‘Good decisions are the product of good policies; good policies flow out of good policy-making processes; and good policy making processes can develop only if there are good oversight mechanisms. In other words, good decision-making should not only be viewed from the perspective of technical and functional advantages but also from the perspective of broader national and societal goals.’

Mr. Singh, I must say has made a very good job of his rather protracted and difficult assignment which has been adequately appreciated by Polish Director of Sipri Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld who says ‘... I wish to express my gratitude to all the authors, and primarily to Ravinder Pal Singh for his innovative approach in assembling a team of national and international experts able to address the key issues.’

I must say that the book is a massive scholarship - and of course a tremendous piece of coordination and incisive analysis by Mr. Ravinder Pal Singh.

The book has copious notes and summaries of the basic papers which are kept: in the Sipri archives - and of sure this will be of great assistance to researchers.

The book is hardbound with excellent get up as it is published by the Oxford University Press. I should say - the book must be read by all those especially higher echelon officers and political leaders with equal benefit, as it provides a most objective analysis of the arms procurement decision making processes and a case study of six polyglot countries. I must finally congratulate Mr. Singh on his excellent work.