Christine Flowers is an attorney and syndicated conservative columnist based in Philadelphia. She formerly wrote for the Philadelphia Daily News and the Philadelphia Inquirer. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.
(CNN)If I were to predict which presidential candidate was going to win Pennsylvania, based purely on my experience as a woman who has lived, studied and worked in the Philadelphia area for nearly six decades -- including 18 years as a newspaper columnist -- I would say that Joe Biden would come out victorious. But I would also likely be wrong.
Though I am a Philadelphia resident, my work as an attorney takes me to a number of the rural areas where detention centers are often located and where many of my clients live, so I spend a large chunk of time outside my city's longstanding blue bubble.
I was also the host of a conservative talk show on a local radio station for over a decade and had my finger on the pulse of right-leaning voters across the state. In talking with them, I've developed a very different impression of what Biden's chances actually are.
Some of the right-leaning voters I've reached out to for their insights in the last few weeks have told me they think Biden's current lead in the polls is both misleading and tenuous. The suggestion that the state will go to the former vice president because he's a native son and Washington's version of a "moderate Democrat" is magical thinking, in their opinion.
Even with a political landscape that has been heavily impacted by Covid-19, growing racial unrest and an economy struggling to find its grounding, Trump still appears to have strong support among many voters in Pennsylvania, based on the anecdotal evidence I've gathered during my work travels in rural Berks, Lancaster, Pike, York, Lancaster and Luzerne counties, where Trump (and not Biden) 2020 lawn signs dot the landscape. Even polls in August, including from Monmouth University, show the race tightening between the two candidates in the state.
And while Biden maintains a lead in most Pennsylvania polls, it's worth remembering Hillary Clinton did, too -- and Trump still came out victorious.
There are a number of reasons many Pennsylvanians are uncomfortable with Biden and the Democratic Party. For example, many of us define ourselves as anti-abortion, a position Biden does not hold -- and a new Supreme Court vacancy makes this issue feel even more pressing.
Many of us support law enforcement -- and are concerned with the violence and unrest we see in the streets, both on television and, in some cases, in our neighborhoods of Philadelphia. To the conservative voters I've spoken to, it's not so much opposition to Biden (who they still see as somewhat moderate on this point) as it is with the Democratic Party at large. They feel as if law enforcement as a whole has been scapegoated for the sins of a few bad apples.
And some of us remain focused on bread and butter issues, like health care and the costs associated with Obamacare. People I've spoken with both personally and on the radio are struggling to pay their premiums or have lost their plans -- and see Obamacare, and Biden's association with it, as more of a burden than a benefit.
Ashley Garecht lives in Montgomery County, a few miles outside of Philadelphia. She is active in the anti-abortion movement and has silently protested outside of a local Planned Parenthood clinic. She told me in an email that while she reluctantly voted for Trump in 2016, she supports him enthusiastically this year because of his anti-abortion credentials: "Where others talk a good game, Trump has acted.
He spoke at the annual March for Life rally in January, cut Title X funding to Planned Parenthood and protected the Little Sisters of the Poor from the ongoing assault of Obamacare. In contrast, Biden and Harris' policy position on abortion represents an assault on humanity."
Adding to Garecht's anger with Biden is his flip-flop on the Hyde Amendment, which prevents federal tax dollars from funding most abortions. For years, Biden said he supported it. Now, in a sharp left turn, he wants it overturned, in a nod to the more leftist elements in his party.
And with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing, Garecht and other conservatives like me feel that there is a real opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade. And now Trump has appointed Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a conservative in the vein of Justice Antonin Scalia, for whom she clerked. While she has acknowledged the precedence of Roe, her record indicates she may be open to additional regulations on abortion rights.
Linda A. Kerns, one of a handful of conservative members of the Philadelphia bar and a personal friend, told me that reelecting the President is also crucial to the integrity of the court system: "True conservatives know that the Constitutional Convention ended on September 17, 1789, and that Supreme Court Justices should not be redrafting or amending our Constitution. Sadly, Democrats insist otherwise, demanding that nominees commit to decisions in line with leftist dogma... Pennsylvania conservatives trust Trump to preserve our liberty and nominate accordingly."
For Christine Coyle, who lives in northeastern Pennsylvania but has roots in South Philadelphia and South Jersey, violence in the streets is a primary concern. In her view, "a vote for Biden/Harris is a tacit approval of the burning and looting in our cities, the hatred and violence toward our law enforcement," Coyle said to me.
This is a view I've heard repeated numerous times -- that although Biden has condemned violence at protests, he does not come out forcefully enough against it, particularly when the violence is aimed at police officers.
The recent shooting of two Los Angeles County deputies has frightened many of us who feel that a target has been placed on their back by some of the protesters' rhetoric. While no suspect has been apprehended and police do not know the motive, it is precisely this climate of tension and uncertainty that has buttressed conservative fears that law enforcement is in the cross hairs, despite the fact that Biden did come out and condemn the shooting.
But many conservatives can't separate the man from the party he represents. As Coyle notes, while Biden has defended law enforcement, many in his party have not -- instead proposing defunding the police and other measures that might handicap them in their work.
Tara Helene, from the Philadelphia suburb of Delaware County, said to me that she appreciates Trump's attention to health issues -- given her personal experiences with the health care system. "The Right to Try Act allows a terminally ill patient the option to try experimental treatments. After witnessing my father's death from cancer and becoming the caretaker for my terminally ill mother, I saw the dehumanization that comes when you're just a number on an insurance company's spread sheet. Had the Act been available when my parents were dying, we would at least have had the peace of mind knowing that they had other options if they wanted to try experimental treatments that the insurance companies refused to cover."
Helene's comments run counter to the perception on the left that Trump has gutted health care. Though the Trump administration filed a suit to invalidate Obamacare this summer, Helene believes that the Right to Try Act, coupled with the administration's efforts to increase funding for mental health treatments and strategies to combat the opioid epidemic, balances out the negatives: "I also lost a brother to suicide, and President Trump's attention to mental health shows me that he's committed to saving other families from the pain we've experienced."
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Helene was referring to the fact that Health and Human Services allotted nearly $2 billion last year to provide expanded access to treatment for substance abuse, and the administration has also proposed policies to improve mental health options for those on Medicaid.
These Pennsylvanians may not be a representative sample of the entire commonwealth, but they confirm something a majority of the state's counties confirmed in the last election: Pennsylvania is a rich, diverse and complicated place that holds surprises for those who aren't willing to look beyond their immediate backyards.
From race relations to health care to fears of government overreach, there is a reason Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016. They are the same reasons he might do it again in 2020.
